Project Risk Quantification 
© Validation Estimating LLC

Products.

what is the point of risk analysis if it doesn’t predict reality and it

doesn’t support better decision making?

Project Risk Quantification:  A Practitioner’s

Guide to Cost and Schedule Risk

Management

20+ years of EPC, Owner and Benchmarking company experience taught me that traditional risk quantification methods were not working. In fact, few ask the question do our methods work?” (are they predicting actual outcomes? can we use them on every project at every phase for every risk type? are they simple enough to do in-house--without consultants). I set out to apply the best research (and did some of my own) to develop an approach that lets us answer “yes” to all-of-the above. Its all in “Project Risk Quantification” (other papers on Total Cost Management (TCM), risk management, estimating and project control can be found here.)  

Practical, Step-by-Step Risk Analysis

Covering ALL Project, Program and Portfolio

Risk in an Integrated Way

Practical means expeditious and low cost. I can help you implement a hybrid suite of tools that use software you probably already have (e.g., @Risk). The PRQ book even provides a working parametric model for “systemic” risks (find a simple version here). The methods step through systemic, project specific and escalation risks (and program risks if applicable) and result in a unique “universal” CAPEX outcome distribution for NPV input. In addition the methods warn if your complex project is approaching the “tipping point” into disorder/chaos. All backed by 10+ years of methods implementation and workshop facilitation at owner and EPC companies in process, mining, energy and infrastructure companies.

Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number?  

I also strongly recommend: “Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number? An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions” by Patrick Leach as a companion text. Project cost and schedule risk quantification should ultimately be used to support Decision Analysis and Decision Making, and Patrick’s book is an compact and interesting guide to the subject (and its what led me to my publisher, Dave Charlesworth of Probabilistic Publishing.)  
Project Risk Quantification
© Validation Estimating, LLC

Products.

what is the point of risk analysis if it

doesn’t predict reality and it doesn’t

support better decision making?

Project Risk Quantification:  A

Practitioner’s Guide to Cost and Schedule

Risk Management

20+ years of EPC, Owner and Benchmarking company experience taught me that traditional risk quantification methods were not working. In fact, few ask the question “do our methods work?” (are they predicting actual outcomes? can we use them on every project at every phase for every risk type? are they simple enough to do in-house--without consultants). I set out to apply the best research (and did some of my own) to develop an approach that lets us answer “yes” to all-of-the above. Its all in “Project Risk Quantification” (other papers on Total Cost Management (TCM), risk management, estimating and project control can be found here.)  

Practical, Step-by-Step Risk Analysis

Covering ALL Project, Program and

Portfolio Risk in an Integrated Way

Practical means expeditious and low cost. I can help you implement a hybrid suite of tools that use software you probably already have (e.g., @Risk). The PRQ book even provides a working parametric model for “systemic” risks (find a simple version  here). The methods step through systemic, project specific and escalation risks (and program risks if applicable) and result in a unique “universal” CAPEX outcome distribution for NPV input. In addition the methods warn if your complex project is approaching the “tipping point” into disorder/chaos. All backed by 10+ years of methods implementation and workshop facilitation at owner and EPC companies in process, mining, energy and infrastructure companies.

Why Can't You Just Give Me The

Number?  

I also strongly recommend: “Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number? An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions” by Patrick Leach as a companion text. Project cost and schedule risk quantification should ultimately be used to support Decision Analysis and Decision Making, and Patrick’s book is an compact and interesting guide to the subject (and its what led me to my publisher, Dave Charlesworth of Probabilistic Publishing.)